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- The flop shot has the lowest success rate of any greenside shot for amateurs (around 10% up-and-down)
- It's genuinely necessary in only about 5-10% of greenside situations
- Most flop shot attempts would score better as a standard chip or pitch to a safer area of the green
- If you do need to hit one, a clean lie and an open clubface are non-negotiable prerequisites
Phil Mickelson made the flop shot look easy. And that might be the most damaging thing he ever did for amateur golf scores.
The flop -- a high, soft shot that lands like a butterfly -- is spectacular when it works. It's also the most misused shot in the recreational golfer's bag. Understanding when to use it and (more importantly) when not to is worth several strokes per round.
The honest numbers
Let's look at how the flop stacks up against other greenside options for a typical 15-handicap golfer:
| Shot type | Success rate (on green) | Get-up-and-down rate | Avg. proximity to hole |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chip (low runner) | ~92% | ~28% | ~8 feet |
| Standard pitch | ~85% | ~20% | ~12 feet |
| Flop shot | ~65% | ~10% | ~18 feet |
The flop has a 35% chance of not even reaching the green. When it does reach the green, it finishes nearly twice as far from the hole as a chip. And the up-and-down rate is less than half that of a simple chip.
These aren't numbers that justify frequent use.
Why the flop is so hard
It requires a perfect lie. The flop demands sliding the clubface under the ball with an extremely open face. Any amount of tight or bare lie makes this nearly impossible. Deep rough can grab the hosel and close the face. The margin for error on the lie alone eliminates half the situations where amateurs attempt it.
The technique is unforgiving. A flop requires a wide-open clubface, a full committed swing, and precise low-point control -- all for a shot that only travels 10-20 yards. The ratio of swing effort to distance is extreme, which makes distance control extremely difficult.
Fear creates deceleration. Making a full swing for a shot that needs to travel 15 yards feels terrifying. Your instinct says "slow down" -- and a decelerated flop either chunks into the ground or skulls across the green.
NG Attempting a flop shot over a bunker from a tight lie because you saw Phil Mickelson do it on TV
OK Chipping to the fat part of the green 20 feet from the pin and taking your chances with the putter
When the flop is genuinely necessary
The flop shot exists for a reason. Here are the situations where it's actually the best option:
Short-sided with no green to work with. You're just off the green, the pin is 10 feet away, and there's a bunker between you and the hole. A chip would run 30 feet past. A pitch would still roll too far. The flop is your only option for getting close.
Over an obstacle to a downhill green. A bunker or mound between you and a green that slopes away from you. Anything with forward momentum will run off the back. You need maximum height and minimum roll.
Clean lie on soft turf. This is the prerequisite for both of the above. If the lie doesn't support a flop, the situations above default to a safer play aimed at a different part of the green.
Even in these situations, the flop is a damage-limitation shot, not a scoring shot. Your expectation should be "get it on the green" -- not "get it close."
When to leave the flop alone
Tight or bare lie. The bounce on your wedge needs grass underneath the ball to work properly. From a tight lie, the leading edge digs or bounces into the ball's equator. Result: a skulled shot across the green.
You have green to work with. If there's 30+ feet of green between you and the pin, a chip or pitch will get there with far less risk.
You haven't practiced it. The flop is not a shot you can improvise. If you haven't hit at least 50 flop shots in practice, don't attempt one on the course.
The downside is severe. If a failed flop means the ball goes into a bunker, water, or out of bounds, the risk-reward is terrible. Play safe.
How to execute the flop (when you genuinely need it)
Open the clubface wide
Before you grip the club, rotate the face open so it points almost skyward. Then take your grip. Use your most lofted wedge (58-60 degrees). The effective loft should be 70+ degrees.
Open your stance significantly
Aim your feet 30-40 degrees left of target (for right-handed golfers). The swing path follows your body line, sending the club across the ball from outside to in.
Ball position forward
Play the ball off your front heel. This ensures the club reaches the ball with maximum loft exposed.
Make a FULL swing
This is where commitment matters most. A flop requires a surprisingly large swing for a short distance. The open face and across-the-line path absorb most of the energy. Trust the technique and swing fully.
Slide under the ball
Feel like the club slides along the grass under the ball without taking a divot. The bounce of the wedge should glide across the surface. The ball pops up softly with almost no forward momentum.
The smarter alternative: the safe play
In most situations where amateurs reach for the flop, there's a better option hiding in plain sight:
Chip to the fat side of the green. You might be 25 feet from the pin instead of 5 feet. But you're on the green, putting for par or bogey, instead of facing another chip after a flubbed flop.
Pitch to the center of the green. A two-putt from 30 feet is bogey at worst. A flubbed flop that stays in the rough or crosses the green could lead to double or worse.
Accept the bogey. If the only way to get close to the pin is a low-percentage flop, sometimes the smartest play is to aim away from the pin, get safely on the green, and take your bogey. Bogeys don't ruin rounds. Doubles and triples do.
The decision framework
When you're tempted to hit a flop, run through this checklist:
- Is the lie clean? (No = don't flop)
- Is there truly no alternative? (A chip or pitch to a different spot is usually available)
- Have I practiced this shot? (No = don't flop)
- What happens if I miss? (Severe downside = don't flop)
If all four check out, flop away. If any one fails, choose the safer option.
The bottom line
The flop shot is a specialty tool, not an everyday weapon. It's genuinely necessary in about 5-10% of greenside situations. For the other 90-95%, a chip or pitch produces better results with far less risk. Before attempting a flop, verify you have a clean lie, no safer alternative, genuine practice experience, and manageable downside. When in doubt, chip to the fat part of the green and putt. Your scorecard will thank you.
References & Data Notes
- Pelz, D. Dave Pelz's Short Game Bible. Broadway Books, 1999.
- Utley, S. The Art of the Short Game. Gotham Books, 2007.
- Greenside shot success rates represent generalized amateur performance. The flop shot success rate varies significantly by lie quality and player experience. Tour professionals achieve much higher flop shot success rates due to extensive practice and superior technique.